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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 24th, 2023–Feb 25th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Recent variable winds have affected the snowpack at all elevations. Watch for dense, cohesive slabs in all areas - especially fresh slabs forming from southwest winds.

Head to sheltered terrain at lower elevations for the best chance of finding good riding conditions.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday small loose dry avalanche activity was reported.

On Wednesday a number of storm slab and wind slab avalanches were triggered with explosives and ski cutting, up to size 2 on various aspects and elevations.

A natural avalanche cycle occurred during stormy weather on Tuesday, with numerous storm slab releases up to size 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snow continues to be redistributed by strong north to east winds at all elevations and has formed wind slabs throughout wind-exposed terrain.

The mid-snowpack is generally well settled, with no current layers of concern.

The lower snowpack includes a layer of weak sugary crystals and crusts near the ground. These facets are slowly gaining strength and have not produced recent avalanche activity. We continue to track the layer and watch for any signs that it could wake up and produce very large avalanches.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Mostly clear skies with no precipitation. Moderate westerly winds. Freezing levels below valley bottom.

Saturday

Cloudy with flurries possible late in the day. Freezing levels remain below valley bottom but conditions warm throughout the day with alpine highs of -10 °C. Moderate southwest winds continue.

Sunday

Up to 5 cm possible overnight in the Fernie area. Snow continues Sunday with 5-10 cm. Freezing levels rise to 1000 m. Alpine high of -5 °C with moderate to strong southwest winds.

Monday

Terrain around Fernie may see another 5 cm by morning. Cloudy with moderate southerly winds easing slightly. Freezing levels around 600 m. Alpine high of -7 °C. Possible flurries over the day.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.