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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2023–Feb 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky, Brandywine, Garibaldi, Homathko, Powell River, Spearhead, Tantalus, Sasquatch.

Avalanches are possible in wind-loaded areas at treeline and above. Watch for slab properties increasing in wind-affected snow as flurries accumulate throughout the day. Carefully evaluate wind loading as you move through terrain and investigate the bond of wind slabs to the crust below.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, A snowmobiler remote triggered a size 2 persistent avalanche in the Callaghan. The avalanche was reported to be triggered from 10 m away and was adjacent to a heavy traffic area. We suspect this avalanche slid on the mid-January persistent weak layer. See the MIN for details and photos. This is the latest human-triggered avalanche on this persistent weak layer in the region.

For more evidence of this weak layer see this MIN report from last Wednesday when a size 2.5 persistent avalanche was triggered by a rider at Chocolate Bowl. Find another example in this MIN from a skier accidental size 2 persistent slab avalanche that occurred on Saturday.

On Monday afternoon, search and rescue technicians responded to a fatal avalanche incident north of the Sea to Sky region. The avalanche is believed to have occurred on Saturday and was initiated in a shallow rocky area. See the MIN for more details.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 30 cm of snow has been redistributed by variable winds over a variety of surfaces including facets, old wind slabs and a thin breakable crust below 1650 m, in southern and coastal parts of the region. In sheltered areas above 1200 m snow remains dry and unconsolidated.

Two concerning crusts are found in the mid-pack at varying depths throughout the region. A crust from late January is found at all elevations down 40-100 cm with small facets above it. In the Rhododendron and Pemberton Icefield area, this crust has been reactive to rider traffic and in test pits at treeline. In the Brandywine area, a crust found 80-200 cm deep resulted in a few surprisingly large rider-triggered avalanches last week. This layer exists to 1900 m in these areas.

Total snowpack depths are reaching 300 cm in some areas.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with isolated flurries, trace accumulation. Winds southwest 15-30 km/h. Treeline temperature -9 °C. Freezing level 400 m.

Thursday

Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, 5-10 cm accumulation. Winds southwest 20 km/h gusting to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature -8 °C. Freezing level 700 m.

Overnight flurries bring 10-15 cm accumulation.

Friday

Partly cloudy with isolated flurries, trace accumulation. Winds west switching to northwest 20 km/h. Treeline temperature -8 °C. Freezing level 900 m.

Saturday

Partly cloudy with isolated flurries, trace accumulation. Winds northwest 20 km/h gusting 60 km/h. Treeline temperature -6 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be alert to conditions that change throughout the day.
  • Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.