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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 13th, 2012–Dec 14th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Columbia.

Watch for touchy windslabs at the top of the Treeline band.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

Very light accumulations are expected till tomorrow am with SW-NW moderate winds. The Western part of the region will see most of those precipitations. Sunny periods and broken clouds are still expected for Friday, seasonal temperatures throughout the whole period (-8 C) and light winds from the North West.  The upper trough arriving on Saturday should bring light to moderate precipitations on the regions, again, with Westerly upslope seeing most of it. Winds should pick up to reach moderate to strong speeds from the South West. Another system is following for Sunday, its timing and intensity remain to see.

Avalanche Summary

A few small soft slabs were skier triggered on East and South aspects. An older (approximately from Dec. 10th) natural slab avalanche size 2.5 was also observed on an East facing windloaded convex slope. The crown was an average of 60 cm deep. There was also multiple releases from explosives that ran in the new snow from North West to South East facing slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Windslabs are still a concern in specific areas (Easterly aspects) in the alpine and at treeline with the forecasted light precipitations, moderate winds and the older snow available for transport.  The new snow is also burying some older slightly deeper windslabs in sheltered areas. Overall, the upper snowpack is reported to be settling well.  The November 28 surface hoar down 100-140 cm (between 1500 and 2000 m) is producing moderate to no results. The early November crust down 150-200 cm is also still a concern producing sudden collapses to no results. Professionals are still cautious in relation to these lingering deep problems, but the slow and improving trend hopefully allows us to step it down or even maybe take it out of the primary concerns in the near future.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.