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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 19th, 2023–Jan 20th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Assess for wind slabs in steep terrain near ridges.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Wind slabs were triggerable by riders on Thursday at higher elevations. On Wednesday, many small to large (size 1 to 2) storm slab and dry loose avalanches were triggered by riders and naturally within the 30 to 60 cm of snow from Tuesday night.

Looking ahead, riders could trigger wind slabs in lee terrain features where wind has redistributed the storm snow. It also remains possible that riders could trigger storm slabs in sheltered areas, particularly if all the recent storm snow has a poor bond to the underlying melt-freeze crust.

Snowpack Summary

Around 5 to 15 cm of snow is forecast to accumulate by Friday afternoon along with southwest wind. This snow builds on the 30 to 60 cm of snow that accumulated Tuesday night with strong wind. Wind slabs are found near ridges in wind-exposed terrain. All this snow is consolidating in areas sheltered from the wind, which may take a bit of time to bond to a hard melt-freeze crust found below 1500 m.

Snowpack depths at treeline are around 100 cm, tapering quickly with elevation. Although the snowpack in most forested areas below treeline remains below threshold depths for avalanches, many steep bluffs, cut-banks, and alpine-like features in the upper below treeline band are capable of producing avalanches.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -3 °C, freezing level 800 m.

Friday

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 20 to 30 km/h west wind, treeline temperature -1 °C, freezing level rising to 1300 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with snowfall then clearing, accumulation 15 to 25 cm, 80 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -1 °C.

Sunday

Mix of sun and cloud with no precipitation, 30 km/h northwest wind, treeline temperature -2 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.