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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2023–Jan 11th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard, Moyie.

Weak layers deep in the snowpack remain a primary concern despite the lack of recent activity. Be especially cautious in steep terrain, with shallow, variable snowpack depths.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Several natural storm slab avalanches were reported throughout the lizard range on Monday. Generally occurring above 1900 m on northerly terrain. Size range from 1 to 2.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack continues to settle and stabilize. A widespread melt-freeze crust is buried by roughly 40 to 80 cm. The crust ranges in thickness from 1 cm at higher elevations to 20 cm thick at lower elevations. Below the crust, the mid-snowpack is generally well consolidated with no layers of concern. A weak layer of facets and a crust buried in November is down 70 to 150 cm from the surface. The lower snowpack below this November weak layer is weak and unconsolidated.

Treeline snow depths are roughly 150 to 200 cm.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

Mostly clear, with no precipitation. Very light ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures -5 to -10 C.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud, with no precipitation. Light southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures -5 to -10 C.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with flurries, and trace snow. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature -0 to -5 C.

Friday

Cloudy with light snow, 2 to 5 cm. Moderate southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures around 0 C. Freezing levels 2000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.