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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2023–Jan 4th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Banff Yoho Kootenay, Little Yoho, Banff, East Side 93N, Kootenay, Lake Louise, LLSA, Sunshine, West Side 93N, Field.

Natural avalanches are tapering off, but human triggering is still a real possibility. Trying to outsmart the snowpack is flawed logic in this type of condition. Develop habits that promote big-picture thinking and establish wide margins.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Both ski areas reported minimal results today. Some explosive work produced some very small slides. A skier-triggered avalanche in the Emerald Lake slide path occurred Saturday on the basal facets resulting in life-threatening injuries.

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of soft surface snow in many areas gives good ski quality providing there is a base underneath. The upper part of the snowpack is now a settled slab and the lower part is active two persistent weak layers with snowpack tests showing sudden failures. All slopes steep enough to slide should be considered suspect right now. See snow profile from Wolverine Valley today.

Weather Summary

A relatively benign weather pattern persists. Seasonal temperatures (-6 at the valley and -14 at the ridge), and light wind are expected on Wednesday. Some clouding with minimal to no precipitation is also expected on Wednesday.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.