Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2023–Jan 8th, 2023

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Okanagan, Shuswap, North Okanagan.

Deep weak layers will be an ongoing concern. Check out the new Forecasters' Blog for more details on managing our challenging snowpack.

Be wary of rocky start zones or wind loaded features where the snowpack varies from thick to to thin. Weak layers are more easily triggered here.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche activity has been reported in the region. However, there have been several recent reports of large human-triggered avalanches in neighboring regions with a similar snowpack structure.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack consists of 30-50 cm of settling snow, with a small surface hoar or rime layer found up to 10 cm deep. A crust may exist on sun affected slopes. Consistent southerly winds are redistributing snow into wind loaded features at higher elevations. New wind slabs may sit over the layer of surface hoar and/or crust.

The mid snowpack consists of settling snow and several crusts that may be breaking down. A layer of large and weak facets sits in the bottom of the snowpack, buried in November. This layer is concerning, but harder to trigger based on its depth.

Snowpack depth is roughly 150 cm at treeline. This year's snowpack is weaker than usual, as described in our Forecasters' blog.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with flurries possible bringing around 3 cm. Moderate southerly winds. Freezing level around 500 m.

Sunday

Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm. Moderate to strong southerly wind. Freezing levels reach 1200 m, with highs of -1°C.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with flurries. Moderate to strong southerly wind. Freezing levels around 1000 m, highs of -2 °C.

Tuesday

Clearing skies. Light to moderate southerly wind. Freezing levels around 500 m, highs of -4 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.