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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2026–Mar 2nd, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Flathead, Lizard.

It's a challenging snowpack.

Strong winds have left slabs in open features, while persistent slab avalanches are most likely in sheltered areas at treeline and below.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We have higher uncertainty about treeline conditions due to persistent slabs.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, skiers remotely triggered a size 1.5 avalanche from 30 m away while regrouping; it failed on surface hoar with a 55 cm crown depth.

On Friday, riders encountered extreme winds, whumpfing and shooting cracks extending up to 200 m into lower-angle terrain. Snowpack tests found surface hoar buried 40-60 cm, with easy and reactive results.

On Thursday, riders triggered a size 1.5 persistent slab on a steep slope from a treed ridge; the crown was 50 cm.

Snowpack Summary

Widespread wind effect has impacted 20 cm of recent snow, leaving a variety of pressed surfaces, slabs, and sastrugi in open terrain. Steep solar slopes may have a sun crust and turn moist during the day.

Within the top 80-120 cm of the snowpack, there are multiple concerning weak layers of surface hoar and/or crusts/facets. The majority of recent persistent slab avalanches have been on well-preserved surface hoar in sheltered areas at treeline and below.

The mid and lower snowpack are well settled.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Clear skies. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C.

Monday

Sunny. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny. 1 to 3 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy. 2 to 10 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • In times of uncertainty, conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, or recent avalanches.
  • Keep your guard up at all elevations. Wind slab formation has been extensive and could extend into openings below treeline.
  • Be aware of the potential for remote triggering and large avalanches due to buried surface hoar.
  • Limit exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.