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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 26th, 2021–Nov 27th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Give the new snow time to settle out. Expect to see hazard increase as another system rolls in Saturday night.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Friday night: Isolated flurries, partly cloudy with starry breaks. West-southwest winds, 25-35 km/hr. Alpine temperature low -4 C. Freezing level dropping below 1000 m.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries. Southwest winds 20-50 km/hr. Alpine temperature high +1 C. Freezing level 1500 m and rising by end of day.

Sunday: Wet snow and rain, 30-50 mm. Southwest winds 35-45 gusting to 70 km/hr. Alpine temperature high +3 C. Freezing level 2500 m. 

Monday: Tapering flurries, 5-10 cm. Southwest winds 30-40 km/hr. Alpine temperature high +1 C. Freezing level 2000 m and dropping.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle occurred overnight Thursday-Friday, large storm slab avalanches (size 2-2.5) in alpine and upper treeline features were reported Friday morning. Through the day, explosives triggered large (size 2) storm slab avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

30-50 cm fresh snow through Friday covered a variety of pressed surfaces and a supportive supportive mid-November rain crust. The snowpack is drying out from the mid-November rain event, but moist snow is still found below the crust and to the ground.

Snowpack depths range from 40-70 cm at treeline elevations. Expect to find a deeper snowpack at higher elevations and in wind-loaded areas. Snowpack depths decrease rapidly below 1500 m.

Early season hazards are very real right now, be wary of thin/shallow snowpacks, rocks, stumps, creeks, and other sharks hidden under fresh snow.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.