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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 16th, 2021–Nov 17th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Cold temps have locked the huge load of storm snow in place. That being said, I've never seen 200cm of snow fall in 3 days, so I would stay conservative in my run choices.

Let the storm snow settle a little longer. Winter is just beginning...

Weather Forecast

Continuing cool temps with isolated flurries

Tonight: flurries, 6cm, Alpine low -15*C, mod/strong W winds

Wed: mix of sun and cloud, Alpine high -8*C, light SW winds

Thurs: cloudy with isolated flurries, Alpine high -8*C, light SW winds

Fri: cloudy with isolated flurries, Alpine high -10*C, light W winds

Snowpack Summary

204mm of precip in the past 72 hours at Tree-line! The storm snow arrived cold, then warmed considerably mid-storm, and cooled at the tail-end of the event. There will be rain crusts and moist snow layered in the new snowfall. This massive load sits upon the widespread Nov 5 rain crust, which was found below Tree-line to 2400m in the Alpine.

Avalanche Summary

A large natural avalanche cycle ripped through Rogers Pass Sunday and Monday, with numerous large avalanches (sz 3-3.5) observed throughout the highway corridor. Many avalanches had enough energy to overcome the rough slide-alder slopes and make it to valley bottom.

Natural avalanche size and frequency has decreased with the cooler temps.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.