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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 15th, 2021–Apr 16th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast.

With multiple warm days in a row, and high overnight freezing levels, it's more important than ever to start (and finish) your day early. Look for objectives on north facing terrain without cornices overhead, and plan your egress route carefully.

Confidence

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure, with sunny skies and high freezing levels is dominating the weather pattern this week.

Thursday night - Clear / light east wind / alpine low temperature near 4 / freezing level 3000 m

Friday - Sunny / light east wind / alpine high temperature near 8 / freezing level 3300 m 

Saturday - Sunny / light west wind / alpine high temperature near 8 / freezing level 3300 m 

Sunday - Mainly sunny with increasing cloud in the afternoon / light northwest wind / alpine high temperature near 6 / freezing level 3300 m 

Avalanche Summary

There have been a few reports of wet loose avalanches and cornice failures in recent days.

Looking forward, wet loose avalanches and cornice failures are expected with sun and warm temperatures. The likelihood and potential size of these increases when temperatures do not dip below freezing overnight, and avalanche activity will likely begin earlier in the day with each subsequent warm day. 

Wind slabs may still be possible to trigger on high elevation north aspects.

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface may be a crust in some areas, but recent high overnight freezing levels may mean that the snow surface is moist in most areas. In places where the surface is a crust, sunshine and rising freezing levels are expected to quickly soften the crust. High elevation north aspects may have either soft snow or wind slabs.

Cornices are large and looming along ridgelines. Their release is unpredictable, requiring a large berth if you're travelling above or below them. Sun and warm temperatures will increase the chances of cornice failures, especially when temperatures remain above zero overnight.

Terrain and Travel

  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • Avoid exposure to sunny slopes, especially in the afternoon.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Avoid areas with overhead hazard, especially solar aspects.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.