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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 16th, 2022–Apr 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Cornice activity remains the main concern. Select your route to avoid exposure to them. They are large and foreboding. Monday night into Tuesday may bring less of an overnight freeze and warmer low elevation daytime temperatures hence be vigilant.   

Weather Forecast

Saturday night will be clouds, flurries, 4cm of snow, -11C, and light winds. Sunday will have sun and cloud, no new snow, -6C, 1400m freezing level, and light west winds. Monday will be clouds and flurries, a trace of new snow, -10 to -3C, 1800m freezing level, and light South winds. Flurries, 5cm of snow, and 1700m freezing levels on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

North winds have pressed surface snow and scoured exposed features TL and above. Isolated wind slabs and cross loaded pockets exist in the alpine but have bonded well to previous surface. On solar aspects a crust down 10-15cm exists up to 2400m in addition to a 1-5cm thick melt-freeze crust down 10cm on all aspects up to 2200m elevation.

Avalanche Summary

Saturday's patrol observed a few loose dry steep solar aspects alpine but nothing bigger than a size 1. Two natural cornice failures were noted on the Churchill range from Thursday and Tuesday and did not trigger slabs below. On Wednesday, a cornice triggered size 2 wind slab was noted on Pyramid and another off Manx peak near Marmot basin.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Monday

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.