The wind is expected to be strong from the southwest. If there is more snow than the forecast 10cm available to be transported into windslabs, then the Alpine danger level may be closer to HIGH.
Confidence
Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Tuesday
Weather Forecast
A Pacific frontal system should move on to the coast this afternoon or evening. The front is forecast to be fast moving and should affect the interior ranges overnight Monday. Forecast snowfall amounts are 5-10 cm overnight combined with strong southerly winds. The wind is expected to shift a bit to the southwest and continue to be strong during the day on Tuesday as another 5-10 cm is expected to accumulate. Unsettled weather is forecast for the interior mountains on Wednesday as the fast moving system should have moved on to the East. On Thursday a weak low pressure system is expected to move up from south of the U.S. border spreading light to moderate precipitation mostly to the southern regions of the interior.
Avalanche Summary
Natural avalanches up to size 3.0 were reported from Sunday during periods of strong solar radiation. A couple of natural cornice falls released avalanches up to size 3.0, and there were a few reports of large cornice falls that did not release any slab from the slope below. Reports of avalanches failing down to the mid-February persistent weak layer are getting less frequent. The PWL is becoming a low probability, high consequence avalanche problem.
Snowpack Summary
Sunny periods on Sunday developed a sun-crust on southerly aspects up well into the alpine. The recent storm snow is reported to be bonding well to the old surface. There is a persistent weak layer (PWL) of buried surface hoar from mid-february that is buried between 100-200 cm that is the main concern. This PWL shears with a fracture character that promotes wide propagations that result in very large avalanches. Reports of avalanches on this layer are becoming less frequent. Forecast strong winds and new snow may build new windslabs in the alpine and at treeline.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.