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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 6th, 2022–Apr 7th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Recent storm snow combined with significant warming and solar radiation are driving the avalanche hazard to HIGH, especially by the afternoon. 

Check out the Forecaster Blog for additional details.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Cloudy with sunny periods in the morning. WARM. Freezing levels rise to 2500 m by the afternoon. Alpine temperatures +3C and ridgetop wind moderate to strong from the southwest. 

Friday: No overnight refreeze and WARM. The freezing level should start to drop by midday. Cloudy with snow above 1500 m, 10-15 cm. Ridgetop winds strong from the southwest.

Saturday: Cloudy and cold with new snow up to 10 cm. Freezing levels drop to the valley bottom and ridgetop winds switch to the northwest. 

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, solar induced dry loose and storm slab avalanches were reported up to size 2. 

On Monday, numerous natural and rider-triggered wind and storm slabs up to size 2 were reported. Some dry loose avalanches were also seen from steep terrain features up to size 1.  

Warm temperatures and solar radiation will likely trigger a natural avalanche cycle on Thursday and Friday

Snowpack Summary

Thursdays warming will likely create moist/ wet surface snow on all aspects and elevations beside high true North slopes. 

Up to 25 cm of new storm snow fell at upper elevations. Strong west to southwest wind will be redistributing the new storm snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming wind slabs and developing large cornices. The upper 60 cm of the snowpack consists of multiple buried crusts. 

The new snow brings 50-70 cm of snow above the late March melt-freeze crust and tapers rapidly at lower elevations. 

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Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of intense solar radiation.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
  • Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by warming or cornice fall may be large and destructive.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.