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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 4th, 2022–Apr 5th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

Up to 25 cm of storm snow has blanketed the region. Fresh storm slabs exist with deeper deposits on leeward slopes. If the sun pokes out expect avalanche activity to spike.

A conservative approach to terrain is a great way to ease into your day while assessing along the way.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: New snow 5-10 cm at upper elevations. Moderate West wind at ridgetop and freezing level's 1500 m during the day and dropping to valley bottom overnight.

Wednesday: Chance of flurries and sunshine. Ridgetop winds moderate from the southwest and freezing levels rise to 1500 m.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with some sunny periods. Trace snow amounts. Strong southwest wind and freezing levels rising to 2000 m. 

Avalanche Summary

The recent snow may have a poor bond to the underlying crust. Rider-triggered storm and wind slab avalanches remain likely on Tuesday. 

On Sunday, several loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5 from steep terrain were reported. 

On Saturday, many large dry loose avalanches (up to size 3) were observed in steep terrain. Skiers triggered several small dry loose avalanches. 

Snowpack Summary

15 to 25 cm of new storm snow fell at upper elevations. Strong west to southwest wind will be redistributing the new storm snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming touchy wind slabs and developing large cornices. The upper 60 cm of the snowpack consists of multiple buried crusts. 

The new snow brings 40-70 cm of snow above the late March melt-freeze crust and tapers rapidly at lower elevations. This crust is present up to 1900 m on all aspects. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.