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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2026–Jan 15th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, East Purcell, St. Mary, Bull.

As temperatures cool off, so too will the avalanche activity.

Look for features of concern as you move above the melt-freeze crust.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, there was a widespread avalanche cycle with many small and large (size 1-3) storm slabs and wet loose avalanches. This occurred as freezing levels went to near mountain top.

On Monday, several natural and human-triggered storm slabs (size 1-2) were observed on a variety of aspects and elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures and now cooling are expected to have created a crust up to around treeline. High alpine areas may still be crust free.

At upper elevations, up to 25 cm of recent storm snow has been redistributed by strong southwest winds.

Around 40 to 60 cm of snow overlies a persistent weak layer of surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain, and a sun crust on steep south-facing slopes.

A deep persistent weak layer consisting of a thick melt-freeze crust, with weak faceted snow and/or depth hoar, can be found near the ground in shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night
Mostly clear skies. 50 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Thursday
Sunny. 40 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1100 m.

Friday
Sunny. 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level below valley bottom.

Saturday
Sunny. 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 2300 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.
  • A hard crust on the snow surface will help strengthen the snowpack, but may cause tough travel conditions.
  • Wind slabs are isolated, but may remain reactive.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.