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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2020–Mar 16th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Strong northeast winds have formed wind slabs on atypical slopes. Sunny skies and a warming trend could start to weaken sun-exposed slopes and cornices.

Confidence

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern; little change is expected for several days.

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: Clear, light northeast winds, alpine temperature -18 C. 

Monday: Clear, light northeast winds, alpine high temperature -1 C, freezing level 1500 m. 

Tuesday: Clear, light northeast winds, alpine high temperature -3 C, freezing level 1300 m.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, isolated overnight flurries with up to 5 cm of snow, light northeast winds, alpine high temperature -11 C, freezing level 800 m.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous small (size 1-1.5) wind slabs were reported on Saturday failing both naturally and from human and explosive triggers. Cornices have grown large with the recent weather, and a cornice failure could trigger a large slab avalanche on the slope below. 

Cornices and loose wet avalanches may become more reactive with strong solar radiation and rising temperatures forecast for the coming days.

Snowpack Summary

Snowfall totals from the weekend storm varied across the region, with accumulations ranging from 10-25+ cm of snow. Higher amounts fell in the southeastern corner of the region. Strong easterly winds drifted the new snow into wind slabs on lee terrain features in a reverse-loading pattern. A warming trend over the next several days could weaken surface snow and cornices.

A total of 25 to 45 cm of snow from the previous storm has been redistributed by wind or is well-settled. This snow sits on older wind slabs in exposed areas, and a sun crust on solar aspects (south through west facing slopes). Melt-freeze crusts extend up to about 1900 m on other aspects. 

A thick crust/facet layer currently sits 40-80 cm below the surface and can be found up to 2100 m. The middle of the snowpack is generally strong, but the base of the snowpack contains basal facets that are most prominent in shallow rocky start zones.

Terrain and Travel

  • Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a deep persistent slab.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.