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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2020–Mar 15th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Wind slabs may be found in atypical terrain due to northeast wind. A warming trend could weaken cornices and the snow on sun-exposed slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear skies, light east wind, treeline temperature -7 C.

SUNDAY: Clear skies, moderate east wind, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level rising to 1200 m.

MONDAY: Clear skies, light to moderate northeast wind, treeline temperature 4 C, freezing level 2300 m.

TUESDAY: Clear skies, light northwest wind, treeline temperature 4 C, freezing level 2200 m.

Avalanche Summary

There have not been reports of avalanche activity in the region since those reported in this MIN. The potential of triggering wind slab avalanches remains possible. Loose wet avalanche activity and cornice falls could also be triggered with the warming trend.

Snowpack Summary

A major warming trend is forecast for the coming days, which could rapidly weaken the snowpack and cornices. Wind slabs may be found on all aspects due to variable wind directions. Recent wind has blown from the northeast, forming fresh wind slabs in south to southwest terrain features at higher elevations. In sheltered terrain, about 30 cm of snow may overly a melt-freeze crust and potentially small surface hoar crystals.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-settled. The snowpack depth varies from around 300 to 400 cm around 1200 to 1400 m and tapers rapidly with elevation, with no snow below 700 m.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of highly variable recent wind loading patterns.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
  • Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by warming or cornice fall may be large and destructive.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.