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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 17th, 2020–Mar 18th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Wind slabs may still be found and the snowpack will weaken during the heat of the day, particularly on sun-exposed slopes. This warming is capable of triggering large avalanches.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries, moderate east wind, alpine temperature -11 C.

WEDNESDAY: Clear skies, light to moderate west wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1600 m.

THURSDAY: Cloudy, light northeast wind, alpine temperature -10 C, freezing level 900 m.

FRIDAY: Clear skies, light to moderate northwest wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

A large avalanche was remotely triggered on Monday near Fernie, as described in this MIN. The avalanche released on the faceted grains above the melt-freeze crust described in the Snowpack Summary. Otherwise, wet loose avalanche activity was noted on steep, sun-exposed slopes. Some wet loose activity also was observed on Tuesday.

Looking ahead, it is uncertain whether more persistent slab avalanche activity could arise during this period of generally sunny skies and modest air temperature. We will continue to track avalanche activity to observe for trends.

Snowpack Summary

Sunny skies have formed a melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes. Recent strong easterly wind has produced wind slabs on lee terrain features. This wind direction is atypical, so you may find wind slabs in terrain features that don't usually have them.

A layer of faceted grains overly a melt-freeze crust from early February. This layer currently sits 30 to 60 cm below the surface. This layer has been the culprit of recent avalanche activity near Fernie.

The middle of the snowpack is generally strong, but the base of the snowpack may contain a weak layer of faceted grains that are most prominent in shallow rocky start zones with a snowpack depth of 150 cm or less.

Terrain and Travel

  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.