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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 6th, 2020–Mar 9th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Rockies.

The sun is coming out for the first time after a stormy period which will make wind slabs and cornices more sensitive to failure. Give corniced slopes a wide berth and watch for loose wet avalanches on south and west facing slopes.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to extremely variable snowpack conditions reported through the region. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Lots of sun expected this weekend.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Light west/southwest wind, freezing level at valley bottom, 2 to 5 cm of snow possible.

SATURDAY: A few clouds, light variable wind, freezing level at valley bottom, no significant precipitation expected.

SUNDAY: Clear sky in the morning, scattered cloud cover after lunch, moderate west/northwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.

MONDAY: Clear sky in the morning, increasingly cloudy, building to broken cloud cover after lunch, strong west/southwest wind, no significant precipitation expected during the day, potential for 5 to 10 cm Monday night.

Avalanche Summary

As we head into the weekend we expect the strengthening March sun to be the main driver of avalanche hazard. Although the air temperature will still be below freezing, the sun could bring on a wave of loose wet avalanches on solar (south and west) aspects, it could also weaken cornices to the point of failure.

On Wednesday control work in the pine pass produced avalanches up to size 3.5 that were running on the late February crust which is about 70 cm below the surface.

On Tuesday a natural avalanche cycle included storm & wind slabs up to size 3 in wind loaded alpine terrain. Natural avalanche activity was likely extensive last weekend but poor visibility limited observations.

Snowpack Summary

The region picked up 7 cm (Renshaw) to 15 cm (Kakwa, Core Lodge & Link Creek) Thursday into Thursday night and this snow hasn't seen much wind yet. This new snow rests on wind effected snow as there's been 40 to 100+ cm of storm snow that fell over the last 10 days, this older snow was heavily affected by west/southwest wind

There are a couple of crusts beneath recent storm snow including a rain crust below 1200 m and sun crusts on south and west facing slopes.

The lower snowpack is strong and well-bonded in many parts of the region. However, given the large extent of the region it remains important to understand snowpack conditions in your local riding area. 

The Pine Pass area has a layer of surface hoar roughly 100 cm below the surface that was a problem around treeline elevations in mid-February, but appears have gained strength since then.

The eastern slopes of the Rockies have many shallow rocky slopes that could harbour weak basal facets.

Cornices have grown large and should be given wide berth, especially if you're travelling on ridge lines.

Terrain and Travel

  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating, travel early on exposed slopes.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Rocks will heat up with daytime warming and may become trigger points for loose wet avalanches

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.