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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2026–Mar 16th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Danger ratings may be higher and progress quicker than what is currently forecasted for the storm. Models do not agree on amounts and timing but it looks like an atmospheric river is coming with potentially 75cm of new snow by Thursday and rain at lower elevations. Expect Highway 93 to be closed Monday at 1600hrs and opening TBD.

Confidence

Low

  • We are uncertain due to the timing, track, and intensity of the incoming weather system.

Avalanche Summary

Sunday's field patrol Mount Morden Long near Sunwapta station observed nothing notable with excellent visibility. They noted whoomphing up to 1800m. Avalanche control at Parker Ridge on March 12th produced a few surface wind slabs up to size 2.

Snowpack Summary

Strong winds last week have scoured fetches and formed and maintained wind slabs on leeward features. A persistent weak layer of surface hoar and facets is buried 20-80 cm. Below, the snowpack is generally well consolidated facets to ground. Average snow depths for Icefields is 130-200 cm and Maligne is 60-140 cm. 

Weather Summary

Monday is forecasted to be 15cm of snow by the end of the day, -3 °C, and 25-35 km/h SW winds. Tuesday could bring 25cm of more snow, -1 °C, 25 gusting 70 km/h SW winds. Wednesday will be potentially another 20cm of snow, 0 °C, 15 gusting 65 km/h winds. Thursday might be another 14cm of snow and 0 °C. Monday to Thursday could amass 75cm of snow.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Watch for rapidly changing conditions during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.