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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 30th, 2021–Mar 31st, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Rising temperatures coupled with spring sun can pack a punch and quickly initiate natural avalanche activity and weaken cornices. Be ready to back off slopes as the surface becomes moist. Moderate wind could help keep things cool, but could also be building new wind slabs.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night: Scattered flurries. Moderate westerly wind. Freezing level 600 m. Alpine temperature -7.

Wednesday: Isolated flurries clearing in the afternoon. Moderate to strong southwest wind. Freezing level 1800 m. Alpine temperature -3.

Thursday: Flurries up to 5 cm. Strong southwest wind. Freezing level 1600 m. Alpine temperature -5.

Friday: Mix of sun and cloud. Light southwest wind. Freezing level 1400 m. Alpine temperature -7.

Avalanche Summary

We haven't received any reports of natural activity during the weekend's storm but a couple of involvements were reported on Monday. We really appreciate this MIN report of a size 1.5 skier triggered storm slab on a northeast aspect around treeline. Thankfully no one was injured. We regret to report a fatality on Eureka Peak, east of Williams Lake. A human-triggered cornice failure resulted in a size 2.5 slab avalanche. It is important to remember to stay well back from ridgetops that might be corniced and to avoid slopes with overhead cornice exposure especially under the current conditions where recent rapid growth has made them large and fragile. Strong sun will make cornice failures even more likely Wednesday afternoon.

Snowpack Summary

20-50 cm of recent snow has seen some redistribution by southwest to northwest wind, and seems to be bonding well with underlying surfaces. Dry snow that sees the sun or experiences above freezing temperatures for the first time Wednesday may become reactive as it settles rapidly. Crusty surfaces below treeline will become moist with rising freezing levels.

Recent warm weather patterns are expected to have helped old persistent weak layers heal including a few crusts buried over the last month and a facet layer 150 cm deep from the mid-February cold snap which has not produced avalanches since the first half of March.

Terrain and Travel

  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
  • Remember that in the spring strong solar radiation and warm temperatures can weaken the snow in a matter of minutes.
  • Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.