Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 4th, 2022–Mar 5th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Watch for new wind slab formation on Saturday at higher elevations. Moderate northerly winds are expected to redistribute the recent storm snow where the snowpack in not capped by a melt-freeze crust. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure brings dry and sunny conditions for the weekend. 

Friday Night: Mainly clear, light to moderate N wind, freezing levels 600-1000 m.

Saturday: Sunny, moderate N wind, freezing levels reaching around 1500 m.

Sunday: Mainly sunny, moderate to strong N wind, freezing levels reaching around 2000 m with an inversion.

Monday: A mix of sun and cloud, strong NW wind, freezing levels 1500-2000 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed on Thursday. Poor visibility limited observations.  

On Tuesday, numerous size 1 wet loose avalanches were reported at below treeline elevations. Poor visibility made for limited alpine observations. Check out this MIN Report for more details at the Mt. Cain area. 

On Monday, our field team observed widespread natural avalanche activity size 1-2.5. A skier-triggered size 2 storm slab was reported at Mt Cain on Sunday in this MIN.

Snowpack Summary

A melt-freeze crust is now expected to be capping the snowpack below around 1500 m elevation on all aspects and on sun-exposed slopes into the alpine. On north aspects above 1500 m, the snow surface is expected to remain dry and crust-free. In exposed terrain at higher elevations, the recent storm snow may be wind-affected. 

A melt-freeze crust from mid-February can be found approximately 80 cm beneath the surface with some spotty surface hoar crystals above. Recent snowpack testing suggests the crust is bonding well to the surrounding snow. A strong, well-settled middle and lower snowpack exist below.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.