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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 4th, 2022–Mar 5th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

The snowpack varies across the region, so start with conservative terrain choices, and watch for signs of instability like recent avalanches or shooting cracks. 

Don't let the sun lure you into big features if it's not appropriate for your local conditions. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to extremely variable snowpack conditions reported through the region. Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern; little change is expected for several days.

Weather Forecast

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Trace of snow expected, with possible localized amounts up to 5cm. Light north wind. Freezing level at valley bottom. Alpine low around -8 °C.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. no new snow expected. Light northerly ridgetop winds with some gusts to moderate in the higher alpine. Freezing level rising to 1500 m through the day. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. 0-3 cm of snow expected overnight, and a possible trace through the day. Light north ridgetop winds, trending to moderate at higher elevations. Freezing level at valley bottom overnight, rising to 1250 m through the day.

Monday: Partly cloudy. 0-3 cm of snow expected. Light west ridgetop wind with some strong northwest wind at higher elevations in the morning. Freezing level at valley bottom overnight, rising to 1500 m through the day. 

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, west of Invermere, a few small, rider triggered storm slab avalanches were reported. A couple failed on a crust on a southwest aspect in the alpine, and the larger two were below treeline on a northwest aspect. Additionally, evidence of a loose dry avalanche cycle up to size 2 over the last three days was reported. 

Also, near Golden, numerous, small, natural and rider triggered loose dry avalanches were reported, and a size 1.5 avalanche was remotely triggered by a rider in the backcountry near Kicking Horse. More details here. 

On Thursday near Golden, many small natural loose avalanches were reported that occurred during intense snowfall in the morning. Also one size 2 explosive triggered avalanche on a northwest aspect around treeline scrubbed to the ground and ran full path, around 200 m.

Snowpack Summary

Watch for the sun heating up the surface snow on steep solar aspects when it comes out on Saturday.

Snowfall amounts have varied substantially throughout the region the last few days, with Panorama and Fairmont being the benefactors of 15 cm of bonus snow on Thursday night. The end of storm totals have ended up fairly similar for most of the region. With mostly light wind 35-50 cm of unconsolidated snow overlies a variety of old surfaces such as firm wind-pressed snow, sun crust on solar aspects, surface hoar, and potential cold weak crystals on shaded aspects. A melt freeze crust may exist within this storm snow, up to 1700 m on all aspects. 

An interface from mid-February is likely now down 40-60 cm. This layer was previously only reactive in wind-loaded terrain where a slab had formed but may become more problematic if covered with a more widespread cohesive slab.

Below that on sheltered north aspects, there is still a surface hoar layer being tracked that was formed in late January. Though there haven't been reports of recent avalanches on this layer in this region, it is still on the radar of many operations.

Terrain and Travel

  • If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.
  • Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.