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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2022–Mar 13th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

South Coast.

Fresh storm slabs may slide easily on a slick crust.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10-20 cm, 30-50 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -3 C. Freezing level 1300 m.

Sunday: Overnight snowfall around 5 cm then cloudy, 20 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -2 C. Freezing level 1300 m.

Monday: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 40-60 cm, 40-60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C. Freezing level 1300 m.

Tuesday: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 30-40 cm, 30-50 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -1 C. Freezing level 1300 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, explosives and ski cuts produced size 1 loose dry avalanches. Avalanche activity will increase in the coming days as new slabs form. The snow may remain quite reactive if it doesn't bond well to the melt-freeze crust.

Snowpack Summary

30-50 cm of new snow sits on a hard melt-freeze crust on all aspects up to 1500 m and to the mountain tops on sun-exposed slopes. The snow sits on variable wind-affected snow on northerly aspects above 1500 m.

A few other melt-freeze crusts are found in the top 100 cm of the snowpack but appear to be progressively bonding.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.