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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 22nd, 2022–Mar 23rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Avalanche danger will increase during periods of strong solar radiation.

Head out with a conservative mindset and dial back your terrain choices until the weather cools.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Light to moderate southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 2000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with light precipitation. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 2500 m.

THURSDAY: Partially cloudy. Light westerly winds. Freezing level around 2000 m.

FRIDAY: Partially cloudy. Light southwest winds. Freezing level around 1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past two days, a few natural cornice failures (size 1-2) have been observed, with some initiating slab avalanches on the slope below. Several small wet loose avalanches have been observed on south-facing aspects from solar radiation and daytime warming (size 1).

Snowpack Summary

10-15 cm of recent snowfall overlies 20 to 40 cm of heavy powder at upper elevations, while warm temperatures have left moist and crusty surfaces below 1800 m on all aspects and into the alpine on south-facing aspects. The upper snowpack contains several crust layers, and the snow is well bonded to these crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.