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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 18th, 2022–Feb 19th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

The tracks and runouts of avalanche paths are filled in and smooth, even relatively small avalanches could run fast and far.

Avoid overhead exposure during the peak of the storm on Saturday.

Weather Forecast

A cold front pushing down from the NW will give moderate to heavy snowfall and strong Westerly winds Saturday.

Tonight: Flurries (5cm). Alpine Low -7*C. Moderate SW ridgetop winds.

Saturday: Snow (15cm). High -6*C. Strong W wind.

Sunday: Flurries (10cm). Low -15*C, High -8*C. Light NW wind.

Monday: Sunny periods.  Low -25*C, High -18*C. Light E wind.

Snowpack Summary

Ongoing Strong S-SW winds and snowfall (up to 30 cm so far this week, and ~20 cm more coming Saturday) is building fresh reactive storm slabs.

The new snow sits over; small surface hoar in sheltered terrain below treeline; wind effect in the Alpine; and a crust on solar slopes into the alpine.

The Jan 29 SH layer, buried 60-120cm, is rounding.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, a field team triggered a size 1 storm slab on an steep slope at treeline, and there was one size 3.0 natural avalanche from a South facing path in the W end of the Park (Gunners 2)

On Thursday field teams triggered 2 size 1 slabs on a North aspect at treeline, and there was one size 3.0 on a S aspect in the HWY corridor.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.