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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2022–Mar 16th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Ease into terrain cautiously on Wednesday. It may remain possible to trigger avalanches in the recent storm snow. Tune into any signs of instability like cracking or recent avalanches as indicators to back off into lower angle or less wind-loaded terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night: Snowfall 5-10 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -3 C. Freezing level 1000 m.

Wednesday: Flurries around 5 cm, 20 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -3 C. Freezing level 1100 m.

Thursday: Snowfall 10-20 cm, 40 km/h south wind, treeline temperature -3 C. Freezing level 1100 m.

Friday: Snowfall 5-10 cm, 30 km/h south wind, treeline temperature -3 C. Freezing level 1100 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, size 1 storm slabs were stubborn to trigger with explosives and ski cuts produced size 1 loose wet avalanches. Over the weekend, explosives and ski cuts produced loose dry and soft slab avalanches up to size 1. On Saturday a few small to medium sized storm slabs were triggered by skiers, as reported in this MIN from Sky Pilot.

Snowpack Summary

50-80 cm of heavy, moist snow appears to be bonding well to a hard melt-freeze crust that exists on all aspects up to 1500 m and to the mountain tops on sun-exposed slopes.

A few other melt-freeze crusts are found in the top 100 cm of the snowpack but appear to be progressively bonding. The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Start on smaller terrain features and gather information before committing to bigger terrain.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.