Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 11th, 2022–Feb 12th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Warm and sunny conditions are keeping the danger elevated. Weak cornices and loose wet avalanches should expected during the heat of the afternoon.

The biggest concern remains a weak layer down 30-70 cm which is still capable of producing very large and destructive avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast incoming weather.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure brings very warm and sunny conditions which are expected to persist until the end of Sunday. A temperature inversion is expected with cooler temperatures in the valleys. 

Friday night: Clear, light N wind, freezing levels around 3000 m.

Saturday: Sunny, light variable wind, freezing levels around 3000 m.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate SW wind, freezing levels dropping to around 2500 m. 

Monday: Light snow overnight and morning, sunny breaks in the afternoon, moderate variable wind, freezing levels 1000-1500 m. 

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, a natural cornice release was reported on a SE slope at 2100 m which triggered a small slab on the slope below. Some natural wind slab activity was also reported which likely occurred Wednesday night. Another natural cornice release was also reported as well as two loose wet avalanches. 

Last weekend, several very large human-triggered avalanches occurred on the late-January persistent weak layer. This layer is now sitting dormant but there is serious concern that it is going to wake up with sun and very warm temperatures this weekend. The layer is down 30-70 cm so it is still in the prime depth for human-triggering. Cornice releases are also a major concern for triggering persistent slabs so give extra caution to overhead slopes which are exposed to cornices. 

Snowpack Summary

A widespread surface crust was reported on Friday which appears to have broken down on steep sun-exposed slopes during the afternoon. Crust formation is expected to continue Friday night with clear skies in the forecast but will likely break down again on steep sun-exposed slopes on Saturday afternoon. Prior to the warming and sun, strong winds had caused extensive wind effect and wind slab formation in exposed terrain at higher elevations. 

The problematic late-January crust/facet interface is now buried down 30 to 70 cm. This layer is most reactive between 1700 m and 2000 m, but is present above and below this elevation band and may still be reactive. It had produced several human and remote triggered avalanches last weekend. Although this layer is widespread, its exact composition and reactivity has significant spatial variability. In sheltered terrain at treeline and just above, surface hoar may sit on the crust which has the potential to further increase the reactivity of this interface. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.
  • Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
  • Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by warming or cornice fall may be large and destructive.
  • Extra caution is needed around cornices under the current conditions.
  • Avoid exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.