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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2022–Feb 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Heightened avalanche conditions exist on steep convex slopes. Avalanches are less likely where thick crusts exist near the surface.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy skies, no precipitation, light to moderate wind from the northwest, treeline temperatures drop to -10 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with some isolated flurries bringing trace amounts of snow, moderate wind from the west, treeline temperatures around -3 C with freezing level climbing to 1500 m.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny, no precipitation, light wind from the west, treeline temperatures around -3 C with freezing level around 1500 m.

SATURDAY: Snow flurries bringing 5-15 cm of snow, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -5 C with freezing level around 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Most avalanche activity over the past few days has been small (size 1) human-triggered wind slabs along ridgetops and some small dry loose avalanches. Last week there were several large (size 2-3) persistent slab avalanches reported on the late January surface hoar layer, and this layer has still produced a few small (size 1) human-triggered slabs as recently as Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

5-10 cm of fresh snow overlies a variety of surfaces. Higher elevations are heavily wind effected with a melt freeze crust on solar aspects. Surface hoar sits below the storm snow in sheltered terrain features. 

The late-January interface is buried 20-40 cm deep, and consists of a melt-freeze crust at lower elevations and on solar aspects extending into the alpine. Surface hoar sits above the crust in sheltered areas at treeline and below. This layer is still producing some human triggered avalanches and propagation-likely test results. The mid-January interface is buried 40-60 cm deep, and consists of a crust, facets, and surface hoar. 

The snowpack below is well consolidated, with the early December crust/facet persistent weak layer buried 100-200 cm deep. It is currently considered dormant. We expect this layer to become active later this season, check out the forecaster blog for more information.

Terrain and Travel

  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.