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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 1st, 2024–Apr 2nd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells, Dogtooth, East Purcell, West Purcell.

Rapidly rising freezing levels are expected to increase the likelihood of triggering large avalanches.

Choose conservative terrain and avoid overhead hazards.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Several naturally triggered wet loose avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported on sunny aspects on Sunday.

A rider triggered a cornice failure was also reported.

Snowpack Summary

Strong solar radiation has formed a surface crust everywhere except north facing terrian at upper elevations.

15 to 30 cm of snow overlies a crust on all but north facing aspects in the alpine. Lingering wind slabs may remain in isolated locations below alpine ridgetops.

A widespread crust with facets above is down 60 to 110 cm. This layer is unlikely to human trigger in areas where a thick crust below the recent snow is present. However, steep or convex terrain features with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack at treeline and above are the most likely places where it may be possible to trigger this layer with large loads.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Mostly clear skies. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 3° C. Freezing level 2500 m.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 6° C. Freezing level 2700 m.

Wednesday

Mix of sun and cloud. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2° C. Freezing level 1800 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, 0 to 5 cm snow. 10 to 20 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5° C. Freezing level 1600 m.

Check out the Mountain Weather Forecast for additional weather information.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.