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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 16th, 2025–Dec 17th, 2025

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, East Purcell, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

A buried weak layer is going to be tested again by another intense storm.

Avoid avalanche terrain as the snowpack adjusts to the increased load.

Confidence

Low

  • Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
  • Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday.

On Monday, there were two large persistent slab avalanches triggered with explosives at treeline near Invermere.

On Saturday, there were several large (size 3) natural avalanches near Panorama. Likely failing on the persistent weak layer.

Snowpack Summary

An intense storm is expected to add to the 5 to 15 cm of snow that fell on Monday.

Around 50 to 90 cm deep lies a potential weak layer of faceted snow at higher elevations, and surface hoar at lower elevations.

A mid-November melt-freeze crust is buried 60 to 100 cm below the surface at lower-alpine elevations (around 2400 m) and below, but this crust appears to be absent in higher-alpine terrain.

Snowpack depths at treeline range from 90 to 140 cm and decrease rapidly at lower elevations.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night
Cloudy. 20 to 25 cm of snow. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1800 m.

Wednesday
Mostly cloudy. 5 to 10 cm of snow. 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 1400 m.

Thursday
Mix of sun and clouds. Up to 10 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -7 °C.

Friday
Mix of sun and clouds. 5 to 10 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid areas with overhead hazard.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.