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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2020–Feb 2nd, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Ease into terrain cautiously on Sunday and be prepared to step back if you encounter signs of instability. Seek sheltered, low density snow and keep clear of overhead hazards - especially if they're in the sun.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow. Strong west winds, easing into the morning.

Sunday: Sunny. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -12.

Monday: Becoming cloudy over the day with flurries beginning in the evening. Light variable winds, shifting south in the afternoon and becoming strong overnight. Alpine high temperatures around -11.

Tuesday: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, 10-20 cm with overnight accumulations. Moderate to strong southwest winds easing over the day.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, natural storm snow avalanches were noted up to size 2 in steep south and southeast facing terrain at below treeline elevations. Loose wet avalanches were also observed.

On Thursday, a widespread avalanche cycle occurred up to size 2.5.

While natural avalanche activity is likely to taper off now that the storm has ended, human-triggering will remain possible in many areas.

Snowpack Summary

50-70 cm recent storm snow has been heavily impacted by strong winds from varying directions, forming reactive wind slabs on all aspects. This snow overlies a variety of wind affected surfaces in exposed treeline and alpine areas. 

Snowfall from the second half of January over lies a thin layer of facets, down 70-140 cm, that formed during the mid-January outflow event. Recent avalanche activity in the Bear Pass area and snowpack tests results have indicated that this layer is still a concern (check out this MIN report). Below treeline, a recent melt-freeze cycle formed a temperature crust up to 900 metres.

A crust from mid November lurks at the base of the snowpack. The last reported avalanche on this layer was Jan 17th. While it is promising that last week's significant snowfall did not trigger avalanches on this deep persistent weak layer, there is lingering uncertainty as to whether large avalanches in surface layers may step down to it.

Terrain and Travel

  • Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.