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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2021–Feb 2nd, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Another round of snow and wind on Monday night and into Tuesday will keep danger elevated. Choose simple objectives with no overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT - Snow, 10-20 cm / moderate to strong southwest wind / alpine low temperature near -8 

TUESDAY - Flurries, 5-10 cm / moderate southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -10

WEDNESDAY - Mainly sunny / light northwest wind / alpine high temperature near -10 

THURSDAY - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries / moderate southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -8

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle is expected on Monday night during the height of the storm. Widespread avalanches will remain likely on Tuesday.

There were numerous size 1-2 human and explosives triggered storm slab avalanches reported on Sunday.

There were several size 1-2 natural, human, and explosives triggered avalanches reported in the region on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

With 10-20 cm of new snow expected Monday night, recent storm snow totals are reaching 45-90 cm by Tuesday morning. With an additional 5-10 cm possible on Tuesday, those totals could be reaching 50-100 cm by the end of the day.

This 50-100 cm of fresh snow sits on a recently buried persistent weak layer that consists of facets at upper elevations, surface hoar in sheltered areas, a melt-freeze crust below 1900 m, and a sun crust on south-facing slopes.

A crust from early December may be found around 200+ cm deep in the snowpack. In shallow rocky areas, it may still be possible to trigger this layer. In deeper snowpack areas, it appears to be unreactive.

Terrain and Travel

  • Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.