Regions
Vancouver Island.
Ok I guess I am a little concerned and also a bit disappointed. Over the past three days I have got a few reports of skiers triggering avalanches (luckily with out consequences), heard reports of numerous avalanches triggered by sleds and then to cap it off an out of bounds boarder triggered a slide near Mt Washington on Wednesday, spent the night out and now will have to deal with some very serious possibly life altering injuries. To be blunt... What is it about HIGH HAZARD that folks did not comprehend? High as stated by the Avalanche Canada website states "Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended. Natural avalanches likely human triggered very likely. Large avalanches in many areas and very large avalanches in specific areas...." So it is easy, stay out of ALL avalanche terrain when the bulletin says HIGH.. It is just that simple. Trust me we forecasters don't use HIGH lightly and really think before we select that box. And really it is not that often we see HIGH on the island bulletin. Take it from me, one who has been involved in avalanche incidences where folks have been seriously hurt and even died, you don't want this to be a part of your life and don't want your families to deal with the loss of YOU... It is not cool!
Past Weather
An average of 30 cm of new snow fell in our island mountains (mainly on Wednesday) with the most (47 cm) near 5040 and least up north near Mt Cain (6 cm). Thursday saw small amount of new snow (2 to 10 cm). Winds were strong SE to SW during Wednesday's storm and light Thursday. Temps during the storm were -1 to -3 and then things cooled Wednesday night down to -5, rising to near 0 Thursday.
Weather Forecast
Well it's a bad news good news kind of weather forecast... The bad news is that after a moderate amount of snowfall Thursday night into early Friday morning, things will warm up significantly and there is a high likelihood of moderate to heavy rain in the hills. The good news is that it will be a short lived event, things will cool off again and we will see a blast of new snow Saturday. Things will then mellow out a bit Sunday. Friday: 10 to 20 cm of snow fallowed by 15 to 50 mm of rain, winds strong SE to SW, temps 0 rising to +4 then cooling to 0/-1, freezing levels 1400 rising to 2600 falling to 1300 m. Saturday: 20 to 80 cm of new snow, winds extreme to strong SW, temps 0 to -3, freezing level 1400 m. Sunday: 0 to 15 cm of new snow, winds strong SE to SW dropping to moderate SE to SW, temps -2 to -6, freezing level 700 to 1000 m.
Terrain Advice
Stay out of all avalanche terrain when the hazard rating is HIGH!Avoid exposure to terrain traps when and if rain saturates the snowpack. Slow moving wet loose avalanches have a lot of force and can push you off a cliff or crush you up against rocks and trees. Avoid zones of wind loaded snow during and after Saturday's storm, and give the snowpack time to heal and bond before you go get rad. Remember you can play in the snow everyday... Its just a matter of picking the right place to play... Stick to low angle forested zones when the hazard ratings are high.
Snowpack Summary
A bit of new snow now sits on the significant dump of snow we got on Wednesday. Wednesday's storm snow seams to now be bonding moderately to the old snow below.
Snowpack Details
- Surface: Wind pressed surfaces in open regions (ridge tops and open slopes) with preserved pow in the trees
- Upper: Low density snow from Wednesday's storm
- Mid: Well settled with some old crusts
- Lower: Well settled
Confidence
High - Weather models in agreement and good field data.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.