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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2021–Jan 2nd, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

New slabs will form as the storm arrives. A conservative mindset should be adopted this weekend as slabs build and weak layers are loaded.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 cm, 40 to 80 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1300 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 40 to 80 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1400 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 40 cm, 40 to 80 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1700 m.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy with afternoon snowfall, accumulation 5 cm, 20 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in the region. Avalanche activity is expected to increase over the weekend during the stormy period. Riders could trigger storm or wind slabs and there remains a possibility of triggering deeper weak layers, which would result in destructive avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Around 10 to 15 cm of snow is forecast to accumulate by Saturday afternoon with associated strong southwest wind. New storm slabs may form in sheltered terrain and wind slabs in exposed terrain features.

Weak layers of feather surface hoar and/or sugary faceted grains may be found above a hard melt-freeze crust around 50 to 100 cm deep. The most recent avalanche activity on these layers were reported on December 23 and 25.

The base of the snowpack consists of faceted grains and a hard melt-freeze crust from early-November. The most recent activity on this layer was on December 23.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid slopes that sound hollow or drum-like.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.