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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 23rd, 2021–Jan 24th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

A dusting of new snow falls ontop of generally firm, crystal-covered surfaces. It may seem harmless now but as more snow gradually accumulates, this interface is expected to become problematic in the long term. So enjoy the fast travel and good stability while you can.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels at valley bottom.

Saturday night: Increasing cloud with flurries starting, up to 5 cm, light to moderate westerly wind, alpine temperature -9.

Sunday: Flurries up to 5 cm, light westerly wind, alpine high -9.

Monday: Flurries up to 5 cm, light southerly wind, alpine high -10.

Tuesday: Flurries up to 5 cm, moderate southeast wind, alpine high -12.

Avalanche Summary

No new reports in the last few days. Explosive control work targeting cornices on Thursday produced size 1.5 results and did not trigger slabs in the slopes below. This indicates an improvement in stability since last weekend, when similar work produced size 2 results, some triggering deep slabs on the rocky slopes below. 

Earlier this month, we saw significant deep persistent slab activity, both natural and human triggered. Deep glide cracks have also been observed previously but appear to be holding together in the cool temperatures.

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of new snow falls on generally hard surfaces throughout the region; old stiff wind slab at upper elevations and a crust below 1900 m and on south aspects. In the recent cool, clear weather, crystals such as surface hoar and facets have formed ontop of these old surfaces. They are expected to become problematic as snow accumulates overtop.

Remnants of a melt-freeze crust from early December may be found around 200 cm deep in the snowpack. In shallow rocky snowpack spots, it still shows some propagation and collapse to moderate to hard loading in the most recent snowpack tests. In thicker snowpack areas it has shown no results, and appears to be trending dormant... for now at least.

Terrain and Travel

  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.