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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 28th, 2020–Dec 29th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Small wind slabs are your most likely avalanche problem, but watch out—northerly winds may have preferentially loaded south-facing slopes. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Monday Night: Dry and clear. Cooling overnight. Light northwesterly winds.

Tuesday: Dry in the morning with increasing cloud cover. Light snow beginning in the afternoon. Freezing level around 700 m. Light westerly winds becoming moderate westerly in the afternoon. 

Wednesday: Approximately 30 cm new snow. Freezing level around 900 m. Moderate southwesterly winds.

Thursday: Flurries. Freezing level around 1000 m. Light winds.

Avalanche Summary

There were a few reports of small avalanches from the weekend during the recent stormy weather. On Monday, things appeared to have settled in typical South Coast fashion. I would expect another short-lived avalanche cycle on Wednesday with another incoming storm. 

Snowpack Summary

30-70 cm of recent snow appears to be adhering well to old surfaces. At higher elevations where dry snow fell, strong winds are expected to have deposited deep pockets of storm slab into lee terrain features.

Around 50-100 cm of snow now overlies a hard melt-freeze crust up to around 1500 m. This layer varies so widely in depth due to the wind transport of snow as it fell over the last two storms. It seems to be bonding well with surrounding snow.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-settled and hosts numerous other melt-freeze crusts which are well bonded to the surrounding snow.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.