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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2018–Jan 8th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Warming, snow and wind are all adding stress to touchy weak layers.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Strong to gale south-west winds. Flurries. Alpine temperature near 0.TUESDAY: Strong south-west winds. Around 5 cm snow. Alpine temperature near 0. A further 10-15 cm snow overnight.WEDNESDAY: Light south-west winds. Light snow. Alpine temperature near -6.

Avalanche Summary

Explosives triggered several size 1.5-2.5 storm slabs on Saturday. Many large whumpfs and cracks continue to be reported, especially at and below treeline, indicating the persistent slab problem remains touchy. Persistent slab activity is likely to increase over the next couple of days.On Thursday, a skier-triggered size 2 slab on a north-east aspect at 1975 m near Fernie caught and partially buried four people. Check out the details here.

Snowpack Summary

A touchy weak layer from mid-December (predominantly feathery surface hoar crystals and/or a sun crust) is found down about 40-70 cm. It is found at and below treeline, and seems particularly touchy between about 1600-1800 m. As temperatures warm, the slab above this weakness may become even easier to trigger remotely or with the weight of a person.Wind slabs and cornices can be found at ridge top. Deeper in the snowpack, an early season rain crust and sugary facets make up the picture. It is possible that a surface avalanche could step down to these layers, creating a surprisingly large event.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.