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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 2nd, 2018–Feb 3rd, 2018

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Snowfall amounts are uncertain in the current weather pattern. Danger ratings are based on the higher forecast amounts of snow. If you see more than 30cm of new snow on Saturday it's best to avoid all avalanche terrain, free from overhead hazard.

Confidence

Low - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Saturday: 5-20cm of snow possible Friday overnight into Saturday with another 5 to 30 cm potentially during the day / Moderate west winds / Freezing level around 1400mSunday: 5-20cm of new snow / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at 1000mMonday: 5-15cm of new snow / Moderate westerly winds / Freezing level at 1400mNote: Confidence is low for forecast wind values and precipitation amounts on Saturday and Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, natural and human triggered storm slab avalanches were reported, especially in areas which saw locally intense snowfall amounts in the afternoon. Looking forward, expect newly formed wind slabs and the persistent slabs beneath them to remain reactive to human triggers with the potential for very large and destructive avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow totals over the past two days are approximately 15-25cm, which fell with light to moderate winds from the south west.On Monday precipitation fell as rain below about 1300 metres and a near-surface crust may exist in some areas below treeline. Where more recent precipitation fell as snow, southwest winds may have formed touchy wind slabs in high elevation lee terrain.The critical instabilities, however, are buried well below the surface. See this video for a summary of conditions near Nelson. A mixture of weak surface hoar and/or a crust from mid-January is buried beneath all the storm snow at 80-110cm deep. Numerous recent avalanches to size 2.5 have been reported on this layer and large, destructive avalanches at this interface remain a concern.Below this layer lies a second crust/surface hoar interface buried early-January that is now 110-130 cm deep. Several recent avalanches have stepped down to this layer.The mid-December surface hoar layer is buried 120-150 cm below the surface. This layer has continued to produce step down releases and "sudden" test results. It is most pronounced at tree line, but is also present below tree line .

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.