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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2018–Jan 12th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

The new snow is freshened up the region but the persistent surface hoar layers are taking more load and getting more reactive.  When the winds come...pull back!

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Winds will slowly increase here out of the NW into the moderate range over the next 24hrs.  Temperatures will increase to a more seasonal level on friday and no new snow is forecast. 

Avalanche Summary

A few new slabs within the recent storm snow up to sz 2.  There were also a few loose dry up to sz 2.  The SE face of Smuts also ran up to sz 2 from 2800m. 

Snowpack Summary

Another 13cm overnight brings our recent storm snow up to 30-40cm over the past 2 days.  This new snow has yet to see much wind affect but it is continuing to bury two key layers.  One the Dec interface down 70cm which is facets or surface hoar (below 2300m) and the Jan 6th Surface down 30 which is surface haor below 2300m or a sun crust on steep solar aspects up to 2600m.  As the snow settles and strengthens over these layers they will become more reactive.  Whumpfing and settlements were being observed on thursday so treat that as a heads up.  Otherwise, wind slabs are still being observered in alpine areas on all aspects but as of yet they don't extend far downslope.  As the winds increase, expect all of these problems to become more reactive at treeline and in the alpine.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.