Regions
Northwest Coastal.
Significant changes are happening with the arrival of a major warming at higher elevations. How the snow responds is difficult to forecast with precision; however, conditions are worsening so conservative trips and terrain choices are recommended.
Confidence
High - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A major warming event is starting Saturday mid-day at treeline elevations. For example near Terrace at 1400 m the temperature reached zero degrees around 10:00 AM.SATURDAY NIGHT: Precipitation ending, moderate South wind, and above freezing temperatures at treeline elevations.SUNDAY: Inversion Conditions with warm temperatures around +5 to +8 degrees between 1200 and 2000m; above freezing as high as 2500m. No precipitation with a mix of sun and cloud in the afternoon. Southerly winds in the alpine with easterly outflow in the major valleys.MONDAY: Temperature inversion continues with similar to Sunday but a couple of degrees cooler under some mid and high clouds.TUESDAY: Cooling temperatures with the chance of some new precipitation as the ridge of warm air moves out of the region.
Avalanche Summary
On Friday there were no new reports of avalanches.Avalanche condtions will change with the incoming weather. Major warming near treeline and above will increase the likelihood of avalanches -- both human triggered and releasing naturally.
Snowpack Summary
Wind slabs and storm slabs are found in alpine and at treeline areas on a variety of aspects. Strong outflow winds have formed wind slabs on southerly and southwesterly lee features at all elevations. Southerly winds are driving the incoming weather; although temperatures look so warm that rain is more likely than snow.Up to 45 cm recent snow overlies several layers of interest in the upper snowpack. These include crusts, surface hoar and facets. A hard crust with associated facets from mid-December sits deeper in the snowpack, about 60 cm down. Any of these layers could create a persistent slab problem as new snow, wind-loading or warming change the properties of the slab above.The lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of areas around Stewart and further north where a basal crust and facets exist.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.