Avalanche Forecast

A break between frontal systems should be seen most of the daylight hours on Wednesday with continued mild temperatures.

Along the west slopes the main problem should continue to be loose wet avalanches on Wednesday. Watch for wet surface snow deeper than a few inches and pinwheels or roller balls that usually precede loose wet avalanches. This may be most likely on non solar slopes holding loose snow but will be indicated on all aspects. Solar effects or sun breaks should increase the chance of loose wet avalanches.

Previous wind slab in the near and above treeline may be loaded and weakened by wet surface snow. This avalanche problem may be getting unlikely but watch for signs of previous firmer transported snow mainly on northwest to southeast aspects.

We will continue to list the January 3rd and 11th persistent slab problem as unlikely in the forecast until further observations show we can confidently put the problem behind us.

Also avoid slopes below buckling snow and glide cracks which can release at any time without warning.

Rapidly increasing rain should begin in the north Cascades around sunset on Wednesday. Be prepared to change your plans if the rain begins sooner than expected and you see signs of increasing instability or avalanches.

Weather

Two fair weather periods earlier this month allowed surface hoar and near surface faceting to occur. These persistent weak layers were buried intact on January 3rd and 11th.

A warm front last Thursday caused heavy rain on the Washington volcanoes. Heavy snow changed to lighter freezing rain and rain in the passes. This caused an avalanche cycle and consolidation along the west slopes.

This was followed by cooler weather and some snow. NWAC stations along the west slopes indicate about 3-6 inches for the 2 days ending Sunday morning.

A weakening front is crossing the Northwest today with high snow levels and rain in most areas.

Recent Observations

NWAC pro-observer Lee Lazzara was near the Mt Baker Ski Area on Sunday and found that the rain late last week had percolated to at least 1 meter. He did not find signs of the January 3rd or 11th layers and did not get significant stability test results. He noted glide cracks on some slopes.

NWAC pro-observer Ian Nicholson was at Skyline Ridge at Stevens Pass on Sunday and at 5000 feet he found that the upper snowpack crystals were rounding and stabilizing. He found the January 3rd and 11th layers at 85 and 115 cm are surviving but slowly breaking down and were not reactive.

NWAC pro-observer Dallas Glass was at Paradise on Sunday and saw evidence of wind transport and solar effects which were limited by clouds in the afternoon.

A private report and a reports via the NWAC Observations page indicate a loose wet avalanche cycle in the Alpental Valley on Sunday. Another report via the NWAC Observations page noted loose wet activity at Stevens on Monday.

NWAC pro-observer Dallas Glass was out again in the Alpental Valley Monday. He reports large roller balls and more loose wet and some wet slab avalanches on W, solar and E aspects. He also noted buckling snow and widening glide cracks but without releases. He identified the January 3rd and 11th layers on a north slope at 4700 feet but the layers did not give test results.