Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Apr 14 – 15, 2014Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Avalanche danger can rise very quickly with warming and solar radiation. Be aware of rapidly changing conditions and overhead hazard.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Daytime heating makes cornices droop and become unstable. A large cornice release could also trigger a deep persistent weak layer and produce a very large avalanche.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Loose wet slides are possible in steep open terrain during warm sunny breaks or periods of rain. 

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–6
    This problem is becoming less likely with more cloud and slightly cooler temperatures but it still deserves some respect. Minimize your exposure on large steep alpine slopes, especially if the snow surface is moist or wet.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Cloudy with sunny breaks. The freezing level is around 1600-1800 m and ridge winds are light to moderate from the W-NW. Wednesday: Cloudy with a chance of flurries. The freezing level is around 1200 m and ridge winds are light from the N-NW. Thursday: Cloudy with a chance of showers or flurries. The freezing level is around 2000-2200 m and ridge winds are light.

Avalanche Summary

It is likely that there was some natural avalanche activity on Sunday and Monday associated with warm temperatures and strong solar radiation.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures and strong sunshine likely created a solid melt-freeze crust on the surface in most places. High shady slopes may still have 10-15 cm of dry snow sitting on a previous crust. The surface crust will likely break down during the day resulting in moist or wet surface snow. The deep facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February (now down up to 80-100 cm) should stay on your radar, especially on all alpine slopes that will see the intense sun tomorrow. Any activity at this interface would be large and destructive. Also, give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below corniced ridges.

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