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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 28th, 2013–Mar 29th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The region will be under a fairly dry NW flow. A mix of sun and cloud with possible light precipitation amounts Friday afternoon. Spring-like conditions persist through the weekend with clear, sunny, warm temperatures during the day and slight cooling  overnight. Alpine temperatures are expected to reach around zero degrees and little wind is forecast.Friday: Scattered cloud. Alpine temperatures reaching 0.0 degrees. Freezing levels rising to 2500 m in the afternoon then dropping  1300 m overnight. Ridgetop winds will blow light from the West.Saturday: Few clouds. Alpine temperatures reaching 0.0 degrees. Freezing levels rising to 2600 m in the afternoon then dropping to 1500 m overnight. Ridgetop winds blowing light from the West.Sunday: Mostly sunny. Alpine temperatures -6.0. Freezing levels 1700 m  and then falling to valley bottom overnight.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, several loose wet avalanches size 1 initiated from steep Southerly terrain. 

Snowpack Summary

Cornices are large and will likely become weak due to strong solar radiation and warming temperatures. The surface snow has become moist or wet up to 2200 m, especially on solar aspects. Melt-freeze conditions exist. Wind slabs exist in the immediate lee of ridge lines and terrain features. Surface hoar and surface facetting is forming on sheltered, northerly aspects, especially at higher elevations. Approximately 40-70 cm of settling storm snow sits on top of a buried rain crust down 50 cm and exists up to around 2100 m. The bond of this snow to the crust has shown variability though the region. It is important to dig down and test weak layers before dropping into your line. A large trigger such as a cornice fall or a skier/sledder hitting the sweet spot, could potentially trigger a large avalanche on this layer.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.