Avalanche forecast

Northwest Inland

Jan 5 – 6, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–6
    Strong southwesterly winds have set up touchy wind slabs on mainly north through east aspects.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–6
    Persistent slabs are getting harder to trigger but still exist in many locations. The probability of triggering has decreased, but the consequences of a release remain high.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–5
    New snow with rising temperatures has set up storm slabs on steep, open slopes.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The region will stay mostly dry on Friday with freezing levels remaining at valley bottom. Expect moderate westerly winds. Over the weekend, a storm system will bring around 10 cm new snow on Saturday and 15-20 cm on Sunday. Freezing levels will go up to around 600 m on Saturday and could go up to 1500 m on Sunday. Winds will continue to be strong from the southwest.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle up to size 2 was reported from the region affecting all aspects. Avalanches were initiating in the storm snow.

Snowpack Summary

New snow and strong winds have set up fresh wind slabs at higher elevations, mainly on north through east aspects in exposed lee terrain--these are likely triggerable by riders on sleds or on skis. Lower down, a rain crust exists up to approximately 1000 m. There is now approximately 80 to 120cms of storm snow sitting above a surface hoar/crust/facet layer that was buried mid-December. The increasing depth of this weak layer makes it difficult to trigger; however, I wouldn't ignore this layer yet, as it could still be triggered by large loads such as rapid loading by new snow or rain or cornice falls. It could also be triggered by riders in shallow snowpack areas or where rocks poke up near the surface. The mid- and lower snowpack layers are well consolidated and generally strong.

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