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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 6th, 2014–Mar 7th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Rockies.

If heavy precipitation continues overnight danger ratings may be higher than forecasted. Check out the South Rockies Blog for more information on current snowpack and avalanche conditions.

Confidence

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Precipitation should taper off Friday night as a more stable northwesterly flow develops over the East Kootenays, though freezing levels will remain elevated. A return to a more active south westerly flow should happen Saturday night bringing the chance for more precipitation and continued warm temperatures. There is the possibility of Chinook conditions developing on the eastern side of the Rockies starting on the weekend.Thurs and overnight: Up to 7 cm with strong SW winds tapering off overnight. Freezing levels should drop from 1700m to 1100m overnightFri: Cloudy with possible sunny breaks, moderate ridgetop winds from the west, freezing levels 1600mSat: Precipitation developing later in the day, moderate west winds with freezing levels to 1600mSun: Moderate accumulations of rain/snow possible, freezing levels to 2000m

Avalanche Summary

The South Rockies team reported a size 2.5 avalanche out of a north facing chute near Grave Lake that left 6 meters of debris on a logging road, blocking their return to the trucks. They also saw several size 2 slab avalanches out of west facing below treeline terrain near Sparwood. Natural avalanches up to size 2.5 with crowns over a meter deep are being reported from N to NE aspects in the neighboring Lizard Range at treeline and alpine elevations. Below treeline numerous loose wet slides up to size 2 happened on Thursday in areas where the snow became rain soaked.

Snowpack Summary

Some areas of the South Rockies (Elk Valley South and Flathead) received Thurday's precipitation as significant rain event below 1800m. In areas above 1800m there is between 30-60cm of new storm snow sitting on top of the March 2 interface consisting of surface hoar, facets or a crust depending on your aspect and elevation . Moderate to strong SW winds combined with the new snow have created windslabs in lee features and have likely contributed to cornice growth at upper elevations.The mid pack still contains a layer of facets and/or surface hoar that is now down an average of 110cm. It is still showing good fracture character on snowpack tests, suggesting that it may be possible for storm slabs to step down to this persistent weak layer in areas that haven't avalanched in the previous late February cycle.  Check the South Rockies Blog for the latest snowpack discussion.A weakness at the base of the snowpack may still exist in isolated areas of the region but triggering this layer is unlikely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.