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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 6th, 2019–Feb 7th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Approach the alpine with caution, wind slabs are present.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Thursday's forecast will bring a high temperature of -15c with strong westerly winds starting around noon.  Temperatures will start to cool again on Friday with light flurries.  Cold is forecast for the weekend.

Avalanche Summary

One size 2.5 slab on an East aspect bowl on Mt. Rundle (EEOR)

Snowpack Summary

Around 40cm of low density snow sits on the surface at tree line and below.  In the alpine, we have a mixture of low density snow and wind slabs.  All of this overlies a strong mid pack that is mostly pencil hardness density. The alpine should be approached with caution to sort out whether a slab is present. What is still on our radar is the fact that the strong mid pack is sitting on the december 10  basal facets that covers the bottom 50cm of the snow pack.  Despite the fact that we have not seen recent avalanche activity on the basal facets, if triggered from a thinner area, the potential is for a large avalanche.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.