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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2019–Jan 6th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

More snow and wind will promote storm slab and cornice growth on Sunday. In areas where more than 30 cm new snow falls with moderate wind, the avalanche hazard will be HIGH.

Confidence

Low - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Snow, 15-30 cm accumulation. Moderate dropping to light south wind. Freezing level 1500 m and dropping, weak inversion.SUNDAY: Snow and flurries, up to 20 cm accumulation. Light south wind gusting to strong. Freezing level below 1000 m.MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Light west wind with moderate gusts. Freezing level below 500m.TUESDAY: Snow, 10-15 cm. Moderate southeast wind with strong gusts. Freezing level rising above 1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread storm slab avalanche cycle on Thursday was reported in the Sea to Sky region. Storm slabs failing naturally produced very large (size 3) avalanches and skier traffic triggered smaller (size 1-2) avalanches through the day. Most had a depths around 40 cm, representing the total snow accumulated starting Wednesday. There have been no avalanche reports recently for the South Coast region, but had a similar storm to the Sea to Sky region and likely had similar avalanches conditions on Thursday.Please submit any observations you have to the Mountain Information Network here.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain overnight has saturated the snowpack to alpine elevations and settled storm snow. At high alpine elevations above the rain, dry snow has been redistributed by strong winds to lee terrain. More snow is forecasted into Sunday, initially this new snow may not bond to the snowpack.Prior to the recent storm a crust extended to 1500 m elevation. At the highest elevations in the north of the region near Squamish, there could be a weak layer of feathery surface hoar roughly 50 cm below the new snow. Otherwise, the lower snowpack is well-settled.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.