Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Jan 29 – 30, 2019Alberta Parks
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Archived · expired 8 years ago

Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Despite the MODERATE hazard rating, this is a bit of a tricky time due to the highly variable snowpack. Most likely trigger spots will be in thin snowpack areas, which could produce very large avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Isolated pockets of thin wind slabs can be found in the Alpine. Watch for these in the typical lee and cross-loaded features, but be aware of the possibility of "reverse wind-loaded" features due to the persistent NW winds.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3
    Respecting shallow areas can't be overstated right now. If this layer fails, it will almost certainly be from a shallow area and the resulting avalanche will likely be very large. Bouldery areas and sparse trees are examples of trouble spots.

Snowpack Summary

5 to 10cm of low density recent storm snow overlies a very dense mid-pack of between 50 and 70cm at Treeline. Under this mid-pack is between 50 and 70cm of very weak facets, including depth hoar. The strong mid-pack is bridging over the weak layer in much of the region, but forecasters and being very cautious in shallow snowpack areas due to the higher likelihood of finding a weak spot (buried rock, thin spot, buried tree/shrub) that could act as a trigger. While triggering this deep persistent slab has a relatively low probability, the consequences will be high. Any avalanche that steps down to the basal layers will be large and destructive.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Wednesday will begin with a frosty -22 Celsius, warming to about -8 Celsius by afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny and winds will be light from the West. Some weather models are predicting that light flurries will move in Wednesday afternoon  and continue Thursday and Friday with accumulations near 15cm.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed or reported today.

Regions covered